Washington, DC – United States President Joe Biden experienced a temporary but stern warning for Iran as it promised to retaliate in opposition to Israel for a fatal air raid on its consulate in Damascus: “Don’t.”

But analysts say that Iran probable will launch its have assault, boosting fears of a regional war and displaying the restrictions of US deterrence attempts in the Center East.

The brinkmanship and ensuing tensions have place even more strain on Washington’s overseas coverage. By now, the US is caught involving two seemingly conflicting priorities: supplying unconditional assistance for Israel and avoiding the conflict in Gaza from expanding.

“Biden is doubling down on a method that so far has been certainly disastrous,” said Trita Parsi, government vice president at the Quincy Institute, a consider tank that promotes diplomacy.

Parsi stated Biden really should have rebuked Israel for attacking the Iranian embassy on April 1, violating international legislation and endangering US troops in the area.

But, he discussed, the Biden administration is satisfying the Israeli authorities by promising to help it in its place.

The US — unlike some of its Arab and Western allies — has not condemned the Israeli strike on the Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria, which killed seven associates of the Islamic Innovative Guard Corps (IRGC), which include two generals.

The White Dwelling, nevertheless, was speedy to distance alone from the strike, stressing that the US was not involved in it.

US ‘devoted’ to Israel’s defence

US diplomats have reportedly been functioning the telephones this 7 days, speaking with their counterparts across the earth to urge restraint from Iran.

Though contacting for de-escalation, US officers have also reaffirmed their country’s “ironclad” assist for Israel, increasing fears of a immediate confrontation in between Washington and Tehran.

“We are devoted to the defence of Israel. We will assistance Israel. We will assistance protect Israel, and Iran will not be successful,” Biden said on Friday. The Pentagon and Point out Section have also expressed identical positions.

“This wholly deprives Israel of any incentives to de-escalate,” Parsi claimed.

He added that Biden’s backing of Israel mirrors his “bear hug” tactic to Israeli Primary Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the outset of the war on Gaza, which gave a green light-weight to the mass killings and legal rights violations in the Palestinian territory.

“That aided form Israel’s tactic that realized no boundaries, that did not treatment about international regulation — simply because they experienced come to recognize that Biden will guidance them no subject what,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Centre for Worldwide Policy assume tank, named the US strategy to the crisis “hypocritical and contradictory”.

“They’re calling on all the other functions in the region to be restrained, continually telling the Iranians ‘don’t escalate’, whereas they motivate Israelis to act with total impunity,” Toossi explained to Al Jazeera.

Iran states Israel ‘must be punished’

He additional that the Iranian pledge to retaliate is partly pushed by the notion that the US and Israel feel they can induce hurt without triggering a potent response from Tehran, which does not want a regional war.

But now Iran desires to draw a company line, Toossi told Al Jazeera. “It can incredibly objectively be stated that US policy has gotten us into this situation.”

The Israeli military services has been concentrating on Iran-joined internet sites in Syria for several years, as Tehran bolsters its armed service presence in the war-torn region.

But experts say Tehran saw bombing a diplomatic facility as a notably brazen act that really should not go unanswered.

“The consulate and embassy places of work in any country are considered to be the territory of that region. When they attack our consulate, it indicates they have attacked our territory,” Iranian Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei stated on Wednesday.

“The Zionist regime produced a mistake and need to be punished and will be punished.”

It stays to be witnessed in which and how that promised punishment will occur, but if it comes about, it could be a turning point in the increasing Gaza conflict. Various international locations have warned their citizens this week against travelling to the area.

The war on Gaza, which has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, has by now expanded over and above the slim enclave.

Iran-allied Lebanese team Hezbollah has been exchanging fireplace with Israeli forces daily. The Houthis have been firing missiles and drones at Israel-connected ships in the Crimson Sea, demanding an conclude to the war, and a US-led coalition has been targeting the Yemeni team to stem its assaults.

But the trend in direction of regional escalation appeared to have subsided somewhat soon after Iraqi armed teams halted their attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria — at the request of Tehran, in accordance to numerous media experiences.

A drone attack by Iran-backed Iraqi groups had killed 3 US soldiers at a foundation close to the Jordan-Syria border. The US experienced then retaliated with a sequence of strikes in Iraq and Syria, but the crisis was ultimately contained.

‘Pressure’ on US and Israel

Now the location is once all over again staring at the prospect of a widened conflict.

“The stress is now on Israel and the US instead than Iran. And certainly, there are a whole lot of threatening remarks directed at Iran in the hope that the Iranians really do not act. But the die was initially solid by Israel,” stated Vali Nasr, a professor of intercontinental affairs at John Hopkins University.

“And now people are trying to steer clear of what might be effects.”

Biden does not want the US to be pulled into a war with Iran, significantly as he seeks reelection in November. But Washington’s default plan has extensive been to guidance Israel, Nasr additional.

“The American position is that they do not want the war to develop. They don’t want to be dragged into a war with Iran. They do not want the Gaza war to grow to be a regional war,” he explained to Al Jazeera.

“They may perhaps be declaring issues to Israel guiding the scenes, but I consider publicly they’re making an attempt to alert Iran not to escalate the war as effectively.”

But he extra that each individual state has to contend with domestic politics in its international plan. “And in the United States, giving ironclad ensures to Israel’s defence is currently a given.”

In Washington, Iran hawks are urging a forceful American reaction if Israel is attacked.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton referred to as on Wednesday for “joint American-Israeli retaliation” that would be “swift and devastating” to any Iranian army shift against Israel.

Israel is less than threat of imminent assault by Iran. President Biden requires to alert the ayatollahs right away that the United States will back again Israel to the hilt and the joint American-Israeli retaliation for any assault will be swift and devastating.

— Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) April 11, 2024

‘Obvious de-escalatory path’

Ryan Costello, coverage director at the Countrywide Iranian American Council (NIAC), a Washington, DC-based team that favours US diplomacy with Iran, warned that if the US joins Israel in reprisal strikes, the effects could be catastrophic.

“It’s actually reckless and would certainly plunge the total location into a disastrous and bloody conflict,” he informed Al Jazeera.

Costello mentioned the US posture so far has been large on deterrence and light-weight on de-confliction.

“They’re saying Israel is going to have our backing, and Iran really should just accept the strike on a diplomatic compound, which I think would be difficult for any nation to settle for,” he claimed.

For his part, Parsi of the Quincy Institute stressed that the greatest treatment to the simmering tensions across the Center East is ending the war in Gaza.

“In the broader picture, there has of class been an obvious de-escalatory route that has constantly been obtainable to Biden, and that is to drive for a ceasefire in Gaza,” Parsi claimed.

“A ceasefire would have stopped the attacks by Iraqi militias on the US, would have stopped the Houthi assaults, would have stopped the escalation concerning Iran and Israel and Israel and Hezbollah.”